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In the aftermath of January 6th, 2021 Capitol attack and the ‘Stop the Steal’ movement, the 2024 U.S. election between Republican Nominee Donald Trump and Democrat Nominee Kamala Harris has become one of the most important elections in our lifetime.
Key issues driving voters’ decisions include access to abortion, border control, the economy, as well as the crises in the Middle East and in Ukraine.
Although the centre-right Democrats and the right-wing Republicans share common-ground on many issues - particularly in their firm support for Israel and their love of neoliberalism and capitalism - there are stark differences in their positions on domestic social issues. In this election cycle, the Republican Party (GOP) stood firmly on immigration, crime reduction, the economy, and curbing what they refer to as the “trans ideology” among our youth. On the other hand, the Democratic Party centred their campaign on preserving national abortion rights, however, much of their platform focused on what Harris would not do, such as cutting aid to Ukraine, reducing climate protection, rather than campaigning on new policies she would fight for.
The entire focus was on the seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. The result of these states would decide the fate of the USA for the next four years. After just one night of vote-counting Trump claimed victory, having already won North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania to take him to the 270 majority threshold.
Who voted for who?
Analysing voter demographics reveal the deepening polarisation among American citizens, with notable divides between gender and those college vs. non-college educated. However, it highlights general sway away from the Democratic Party and Harris. Although a higher percentage of women voted for Kamala Harris, she still received less votes among women than Joe Biden in 2020.
Although the Electoral College is often criticised for failing to fully embrace democracy, Kamala Harris didn’t even win the popular vote. There was not a single county in the entire country where she received more votes than Joe Biden did in 2020. She also underperformed among minority voters compared to previous Democratic candidates. While Barack Obama received around 71% of Latino votes and 93% of Black votes in 2012, the NBC Exit Poll found that one in three people of colour voted for Trump in this election, with more Latino men voting for Trump than Harris.
However, the election results show that it is not just Kamala Harris who lost. The GOP have now won control of the Senate, taking away seats previously held by the Democrats. It is clear that there has been a shift in overall political ideology in the USA to the far-right, embracing extremism. This sentiment likely stems from people feeling worse off since the pandemic and comparing their current situation to how they felt under the Trump administration. People often fail to acknowledge that the pandemic impacted the entire world, leaving people in every country feeling worse off. Many fail to make this connection, instead attributing their struggles solely to the post-Trump period and idealising his administration.
Social media now plays a central role in how voters access information and political content. For over a decade, Republicans have been building up strategies to reach the masses through online platforms. What began with provocative content - like “are you triggered?” and “blue hair liberal feminist destroyed in debate” - has since extended to creating major outlets such as the Daily Wire and PragerU along with political commentators like Charlie Kirk and Ben Shapiro. Their content reaches millions through algorithm-driven feeds, resonating especially with young males; purposely exploiting fear and anger to fuel right-wing populism that has polarised the nation. Since Elon Musk took over Twitter, this has never been easier for the Republicans.
The Democrats have meanwhile struggled to build this unified voice on social media, partly due to internal divisions within the left. Although the Democrats are considered to be “liberal” in the States, left-wing commentators are still critical of their policies, most prevalently in the Democrats unwavering support for Israel. This ultimately creates a grey zone for the Democrats, as they do not go far enough on either side of the political spectrum to appease people.
What could this mean for the UK?
Firstly, tensions in the US-UK relationship will appear with Trump having already complained about the Labour Party committing election interference last month. Further, despite his recent tweet congratulating Trump on his victory, the UK’s foreign secretary David Lammy’s previous comment branding Trump a “woman-hating, Neo-Nazi sympathising sociopath” shows this “special relationship” will not be so smooth sailing anymore. Additionally, Trump’s close relationship with Nigel Farage could bolster Reform UK’s influence within Parliament.
On the economic front, Trump’s proposal to introduce 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 10% on goods from all other nations could have major repercussions on our economy. In the aftermath of Brexit, the UK’s limited access to the EU market had led to a dependency on the US and Commonwealth nations for trade. Therefore these tariffs may be hard-hitting, leading to higher inflation and slower economic growth. Leader of the Liberal Democrat’s Ed Davey has emphasised this point, highlighting the UK’s need to fix our broken relationship with the EU in order to create a safety net for the damage Trump’s economic policy will inflict on us.
Labour MP John McDonnell took to X and summed up what our government must take away from this election result: “Labour has to deliver the significant improvement in quality of life that people can feel or we face the rise of right wing populism that has swept America. Half measures won’t be enough.” Essentially, Labour cannot just run off protecting our richest with “austerity 2.0” in an attempt to appeal to the soft right. Our government needs to be bold in public expenditure and improve the living standards for the average civilian in the UK in order to defeat the far-right wave.
Words by Freya Owen, she/her
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